This paper develops and estimates a model of the time at which market participants expected the French franc to be devalued relative to the German deutschemark during the early years of the European Monetary System. The model assumes that the expected time of exchange rate realignment is...

An empirical model of time-varying realignment risk in an exchange rate target zone is developed. Expected rates of devaluation are estimated as the difference between interest race differentials and estimated expected rates of depreciation within the exchange rate band, using French...

This paper defines two competing hypotheses on the working of fixed exchange rates. The "symmetry" hypothesis states that every country is concerned with the good functioning of the system, and cannot afford to deviate from world averages. Every country is just left to follow the rules of the...

This essay deals with the EMS experience and its failure, with the Maastricht Treaty, and with the interregnum leading to the formation of the EMU in 1999. The paper highlights the position of German authorities, showing that they were quite lucid about the fundamental weaknesses inherent in a...

The main target of this paper is to analyze two problems: namely, whether the Polish exchange rate system is adjusted to the rules of ERM II and whether an exchange rate system that has been used in Poland since April 2000 constitutes appropriate foundation for the evaluation of the zloty/euro...

This paper argues that, in contrast to the popular bipolar view on exchange rate choices, intermediate regimes in general and regional exchange rate systems such as the European Monetary System (EMS) in particular should not be ruled out per se even in today's world of highly mobile capital. The...

Studies on monetary convergence in Europe have reached mixed conclusions, raising questions about whether the European Monetary System failed to expedite convergence, or whether convergence requires redefining. A definition of convergence is explored that conditions monetary policy on factors...

This paper analyses the functioning of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). To that end, we apply duration models to estimate an eclectic specification that enables us to explicitly incorporated political and institutional factors into the explanation of European exchange rate policies....

History shows that governments usually rethink their views on international macroeconomic cooperation after the emergence of a crisis. The response of the Asian countries after the speculative attacks occurred in 1997 may be considered as another example after the European ERM crisis in 1992-93....

The primary objective of this paper is to use the Markov regime-switching modeling framework to study the credibility of monetary policy in five member countries of the European Monetary System (EMS) during the period 1979 to 1998. The five countries examined for this purpose are Austria,...