This technical note presents material on procedures and techniques for forecasting over the next year. Specifically, methods for measuring forecast accuracy and the techniques for time-series forecasting using exponential smoothing with trend and seasonality are presented. Ways of monitoring...

Forecasting the world economy is a difficult task given the complex interrelationships within and across countries. This paper proposes a number of approaches to forecast short-term changes in selected world economic variables and aims, first, at ranking various forecasting methods in terms of...

In this paper, we empirically assess the extent to which early release inefficiency and definitional change affect prediction precision. In particular, we carry out a series of ex-ante prediction experiments in order to examine: the marginal predictive content of the revision process, the...