Bewley, Ronald; Parry, Thomas - In: The Economic Record 67 (1991) 199, pp. 317-30
This paper uses provisional monthly data to predict the one-month-ahead and one-year-ahead current account balance. Single-equation methods are compared to an eight-equation vector autoregressive model that utilizes the Box-Tiao (1977) modifications. It is found that the single-equation model of...