Expectations about future economic conditions are important determinants of commodity prices. This paper presents a relatively simple model that makes futures prices for corn a function of expected production and inventories and of variables that account for demand shifts. The intent is to...

The empirical evidence in this paper supports the existence of seasonality, time-to-maturity, and long-memory effects in the volatility of prices, but not in the returns themselves, in corn and soybean futures markets. This volatility is modeled as an Orenstein-Ulenbeck process driven by...

We analyze the effect various delivery options embedded in commodity futures contracts have on the futures price. The two embedded options considered are the timing and location options. We show that early delivery is always optimal when only a timing option is present, but not so with joint...

This study develops a simple model to forecast the basis for corn in a specific region. Improved forecasts can improve hedging decisions. Basis behavior, however, depends on explanatory variables that are themselves difficult to forecast with precision. Thi limits the u efulness of the ba is...