In this paper we study 2-state Markov switching VAR models of monthly unemployment and inflation for three countries: Sweden, United Kingdom, and the United States. The primary purpose is to examine if periods of low inflation are associated with high or low unemployment volatility. To interpret...

In this paper, the authors propose an alternative method for investigating the sources behind the behavior of real wages and unemployment. The model they study is a certain cointegrated VAR, a so-called common trends model, which has become increasingly popular in the empirical growth/business...

We examine the sources of labor market fluctuations in the Scandinavian countries using VAR models with common trends. Our primary concerns are the sources of hysteresis in unemployment and possible differences between the economies. A simple economic model is presented to motivate our...

Empirical monetary policy research has increased in the last decade, possibly because deregulation and explicit monetary targets have made monetary policy issues more interesting. In particular, within the inflation targeting framework it has been argued that inflation forecasts can be used as...

This paper presents estimates of the effects of monetary policy shocks on the Swedish economy. A theoretical model of an open economy is used to identify a structural VAR model. The empirical results from the identified VAR model are compared with two less structural approaches for...

In this paper we study 2-state Markov switching VAR models of monthly unemployment and inflation for three countries: Sweden, United Kingdom, and the United States. The primary purpose is to examine if periods of low inflation are associated with high or low unemployment volatility. We find that...

In this paper we study 2-state Markov switching VAR models of monthly unemployment and inflation for three countries: Sweden, United Kingdom, and the United States. We find that such models seem to provide a better description of the data than single regime VARs and need fewer lags to account...