This paper provides an assessment of the consistency of unemployment and output forecasts. We show that, consistent … with Okun’s Law, forecasts of real GDP growth and the change in unemployment are negatively correlated. The Okun … coefficient—the responsiveness of unemployment to growth—from forecasts is fairly similar to that in the data for various …

that a rise in labour productivity and a fall in output can increase unemployment. A 1 per cent reduction in the … unemployment rate requires only a 2.4 per cent increase in real output growth above the average growth rate, but during recessions … periods. Given that recessions are now less frequent, Okun's law continues to be a useful rule of thumb in Australia …