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Suppose that information about the value of a risky asset is dispersed among many agents in the economy. The paper studies the rate at which successive price quotations from competitive market makers, which reflect the desired (notional) trades of risk- averse informed agents, reveal the value...

The potential instability of a fixed monetary rule combined with automatic fixed stabilisers is a well-established feature of closed economy IS/LM models with wealth effects and asset accumulation. This paper examines the stability issue in a general open economy macromodel with alternative...

In the first part of the paper we outline a method for estimating a class of models in which news or surprises appear and expectations are formed rationally. The method is an extension of the errors-in-variables method of McCallum and Wickens. As a by-product some of Pagan's results on the...

The principal argument of the paper is that in an incomplete information setting, where the private sector lacks information on goverment objectives and has to learn about the policy rule by direct observation and estimation, simple `sub-optimal' rules may outperform the more complicated rule...

In this paper the surprising conclusion of Smith and Smith (1990) that the prospect of Britain's return to gold in 1925 had the effect of weakening sterling is subjected to critical analysis. It is shown that this conclusion is reversed when the trend in the UK money stock prior to joining the...

This paper pursues two objectives. One is to generalize the Kalman Filter to dynamic models with rational expectations which include current expectations of future endogenous variables. A second objective is to ilustrate two applications of this estimation procedure to stochastic rational...

Focused on the « rational expectations hypothesis», which has served as the foundation of modeling and empirical research in financial microeconomics under the heading of « efficient market hypothesis» (EMH), this paper is dedicated firstly to provide, through a careful analysis of some...

Abstract ?' The first section of the paper is aimed at elaborating in some more depth the concept of rationality. Both the mainstream and behavioral approaches to market efficiency are grounded in a « substantive» and thus necessarily unique concept of rationality. The heterodox current, on...