This study examines, diagnoses, and assesses appropriate macroeconomic policy responses of the Montenegrin Government to the outbreak of COVID-19. The model econometrically measures the macroeconomic costs using a Bayesian VARX Litterman/ Minessota prior to the pandemic disease in terms of...

In this paper, we document the forecasting performance of estimated basic dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models and compare this to extended versions which consider alternative expectation formation assumptions and financial frictions. We also show how standard model features,...

Identifiability of the parameters is an important precondition for consistent estimation of models designed to describe empirical phenomena. Nevertheless, many estimation exercises proceed without a preliminary investigation into the identifiability of its models. As a consequence, the estimates...

The article researches the econometric model as one of the most common methods used to analyze and predict the complex development of society.It is considered the principles which are the basis for forecasting: the maximum required amount of information about patterns; the past period adequately...

This paper provides an introduction to forecast uncertainty in empirical economic modeling. Forecast uncertainty is defined, various measures of forecast uncertainty are examined, and some sources and consequences of forecast uncertainty are analyzed. Empirical illustrations with the U.S. trade...

Problem. Do conservative econometric models that comply with the Golden Rule of Forecasting provide more accurate forecasts?Methods. To test the effects of forecast accuracy, we applied three evidence-based guidelines to 19 published regression models used for forecasting 154 elections in...