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How useful are DSGE macroeconomic models for forecasting?

Wickens, Michael R. - In: Open economies review 25 (2014) 1, pp. 171-193

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010371879

Dynamic econometric modeling and forecasting

Timmermann, Allan (contributor); … - 2013

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010255249

Error-correction versus differencing in macroeconometric forecasting

Eitrheim, Øyvind; Husebø, Tore Anders; Nymoen, Ragnar - 1998

Recent work by Clements and Hendry have shown why forecasting systems that are in terms of differences, dVARs, can be more accurate than econometric models that include levels variables, ECMs. For example, dVAR forecasts are insulated from parameter non-constancies in the long run mean of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011519088

Economic theory and forecasting : lessons from the literature

Giacomini, Raffaella - 2014

Does economic theory help in forecasting key macroeconomic variables? This article aims to provide some insight into … the question by drawing lessons from the literature. The definition of "economic theory" includes a broad range of … examples of theory-based forecasting that have not proven useful, such as theory-driven variable selection and some popular …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010407425

The financial accelerator and the real economy : a small macroeconometric model for Norway with financial frictions

Hammersland, Roger; Træe, Cathrine Bolstad - In: Economic modelling 36 (2014), pp. 517-537

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010416399

Bayesian forecasts combination to improve the Romanian inflation predictions based on econometric models

Bratu, Mihaela - In: UTMS journal of economics / University of Tourism and … 5 (2014) 2, pp. 131-140

There are many types of econometric models used in predicting the inflation rate, but in this study we used a Bayesian shrinkage combination approach. This methodology is used in order to improve the predictions accuracy by including information that is not captured by the econometric models....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010439151