This paper combines insights from generation one currency crisis models and the fiscal theory of the price level (FTPL) to create a dynamic FTPL model of currency crises. The initial fixed-exchange-rate policy entails risks due to an upper bound on government debt and stochastic surplus shocks....

Governments are confronted with the growing realization that they face fiscal limits on the size of debt and deficits relative to GDP. These fiscal limits invalidate Bohn's criterion for fiscal sustainability, which allows explosive debt relative to GDP, eventually violating any fiscal limit. We...

We present a dynamic and quantitative model of a fiscal solvency crisis in a monetary union. Diverse fiscal policies, which are subject to fiscal limits and stochastic shocks, can threaten a monetary union. The fiscal limits arise due to distortionary taxation and political will. Stochastic...

In this paper, we provide a theoretical explanation of why financial liberalization is likely to generate financial crises in emerging market economies. We first show that under financial repression the aggregate capital stock and bank net worth are both likely to be low. This leads a newly...

A country participating in a monetary union is constrained by loss of control over seigniorage revenue. Once the government reaches its fiscal limit on ordinary taxation, it cannot turn to seigniorage for financing. We show that a monetary union country can increase its seigniorage revenue by...