In our study, we individually forecast 26 metal prices one-month ahead and outperform the predefined benchmark model, a random-walk (with drift) in 18 (18) cases. These forecasts are based on an overview over a large set of potential predictors for mineral commodities, originating from studies...

In this working paper, we explore these questions based on analysis of a dataset of mining and mineral exploration projects covering all the major commodities or commodity groups in six Arctic countries or territories - Canada, Greenland, Finland, Sweden, Norway and Alaska. We do so through an...

1. Introduction -- 2. Developing country growth and the commodity terms of trade -- 3. The statistical properites of commodity prices -- 4. Country case studies : primary commodities and economic development -- 5. Conclusion : commodity dependence in developing countries: economic destiny or...

What drives the long-term demand for mineral commodities? This paper provides empirical evidence on the long-run demand for mineral commodities since 1840. I extend the partial adjustment model to account for country-specific structures and technological change. I find that a one percent...

What drives the long-term demand for mineral commodities? This paper provides empirical evidence on the long-run demand for mineral commodities since 1840. I extend the partial adjustment model to account for country-specific structures and technological change. I find that a one percent...

The “raw materials curse” is far from being an inevitability, as shown by Norway and Chile. Both examples offer valuable lessons to developing countries on how to sensibly manage mining and oil resources. Following Norway’s example, Chile could build upon its experience and become a key...

The paper reviews the debate about transparency in extractive industry commodities trade. It examines the obstacles to improved transparency. A critical review of the experience with estimating losses from a lack of transparency concludes that many of the published estimates of losses from...