The purpose of this paper is to construct a model of exchange rate determination that is consistent with the stylized facts regarding the uncovered interest parity for short term and long term interest rates. This task is especially challenging because of the forward premium anomaly found for...

Error correction models are widely used to estimate dynamic cointegrated systems. In most applications error correction models are reduced form models. As a result, non-structural speed of adjustment coefficients are estimated in these applications. A single equation instrumental variable method...

This paper proposes two estimators based on asymptotic theory to estimate structural parameters with spurious regressions involving unit-root nonstationary variables. This approach motivates a Hausman-type test for the null hypothesis of cointegration for dynamic Ordinary Least Squares...

Economic models often imply that certain variables are cointegrated. However, tests often fail to reject the null hypothesis of no cointegration for these variables. One possible explanation of these test results is that the error is unit root nonstationary due to a nonstationary measurement...

When univariate methods are applied to real exchange rates, point estimates of autoregressive coefficients typically imply very slow rates of mean reversion. Rogoff (1996) discusses that the remarkable consensus of 3-5 year half-lives of purchasing power parity (PPP) deviations is found among...