Cointegration describes the pattern that pairs of time series keep together in long run, although they diverge in short run. A generalisation of this behaviour is the fractional cointegration. Two statistical tests, the M– and ML–test are formulated for fractional cointegration in different...

This note provides a proof of Granger's (1986) error correction model for fractionally cointegrated variables and points out a necessary assumption that has not been noted before. Moreover, a simpler, alternative error correction model is proposed which can be employed to estimate fractionally...

In this paper business cycles are considered as a multivariate phenomenon and not as a univariate one determined e.g. by the GNP. The subject is to look for the number of phases of a business cycle, which can be motivated by the number of clusters in a given dataset of macro-economic variables....

Die finanzwirtschaftliche Bedeutung von Kreditausfällen und Kreditausfall- Prognosen bedarf keiner weiteren Begründung. Dieser Bedeutung angemessen, gibt es inzwischen eine Vielzahl von Modellen und Verfahren, die Ausfallwahrscheinlichkeiten von Bankkrediten oder Industrieanleihen zu...

We simulate forecast errors with different variance-covariance structures based on macroeconomic data. The simulations are used to compare the performance of different forecast combining techniques.

Testing for unit roots has been among the most heavily researched topics in Econometrics for the last quarter of a century. Much less researched is the equally important issue of the appropriate transformation if any of the variable of interest which should preceed any such testing. In...

OLS is as efficient as GLS in the linear regression model with long-memory errors as the long-memory parameter approaches the boundary of the stationarity region_ provided the model contains a constant term. This generalizes previous results of Samarov Taqqu (Journal of Time Series Analysis 9...