The East Asian miracle was real. Prior to the 1997 economic and currency crises, Asian NICs - Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan - achieved remarkable annual GDP growth. In these countries the overall economic performance was significantly determined by the industrial development triggered...

Assessing the global economic outlook is a fundamentally important task of international financial institutions, governments and central banks. In this paper we focus on the consequences of the rapid growth of emerging markets for monitoring and forecasting the global outlook. Our main results...