This paper finds strong support for a Phillips curve that becomes nonlinear when inflation is "low"--which our baseline model defines as less than 3 percent. The nonlinear curve is steep when output is above potential (slack is negative), but flat when output is below potential (slack is...

This paper revises and extends PIIE Working Paper 20-6. It continues to find strong support for a Phillips curve that becomes nonlinear when inflation is "low" - which our baseline model defines as less than 3 percent. The nonlinear curve is steep when output is above potential (slack is...