This paper investigates whether commodity convenience yields - the yields that accrue to the holders of physical commodities - can predict the exchange rate of commodity-exporters' currencies. Predictability is a consequence of the fact that i) convenience yields are useful predictors for...

In the wake of the financial crisis, most developed countries have entered a period of prolonged budgetary austerity. While the success of austerity programs is still unclear, it is also an open question what success would mean for activist government in the long run. This paper rejects the...