This paper presents evidence that speculative bubbles can have sizeable effects on house prices, and on housing investment. We infer that deviations of asset prices from fundamental values may have serious consequences for real activity, and explore some policy implications. The analysis relies...

The paper shows that differences in real interest rates across countries can arise even with perfect competition and fully integrated international capital markets. Specifically, we find that factor returns will differ across countries which are identical except for differences in technological...

This paper analyses the effects of productivity shocks on the current and future terms of trade and on output in a two country framework. An overlapping-generations model is used in which individuals allocate their savings between domestic and foreign capital assets according to their...

This paper develops a new parity condition for international financial markets which relates differences between the forward exchange rate and the expected future exchange rate to interest rate term premiums. It begins with the general proposition that VIP cannot hold for all maturity horizons...

Asset prices and investment were unusually weak throughout the industrial world during the early 1990s. This paper highlights this stylized fact, and connects it with another: in most of the industrial world, asset markets boomed for several years before collapsing around 1989. The paper...

“Support” and “resistance” levels—points at which an exchange rate trend may be interrupted and reversed—are widely used for short-term exchange rate forecasting. Nevertheless, the levels’ ability to predict intraday trend interruptions has never been rigorously evaluated. This...

This paper makes three contributions to our understanding of the price discovery process in currency markets. First, it provides evidence that this process cannot be the familiar one based on adverse selection and customer spreads, since such spreads are inversely related to a trade's likely...

This paper considers the effect on factor prices and welfare of trade between economies whose production is characterized by nation-specific technological uncertainty. The analysis is carried out using a two-country Diamond overlapping-generations model in which technological uncertainty is...

What triggers extreme exchange-rate returns? Though news is the source of volatility in standard theoretical models, in reality volatility is often unrelated to news. This paper shows that extreme exchange-rate returns -- and, more generally, high kurtosis of returns -- are statistically...