. Especially for unemployment we find large effects of an increased foreign share. We conjecture that these results might be … spurious. Foreigners tend to be concentrated in lower unemployment areas but unemployment tends to be mean reverting during the … boom period we study. This leads to a positive correlation between the instrument and the change in unemployment. Taking …

for state dependence effects in male unemployment behaviour. Estimation of the model is based on the marginal likelihood … approach. In the model an individual's unemployment probability at a given point in time within the period 1985 - 1989 depends … on his labour force status in the previous period and on the cumulated duration of past unemployment. Controlling for …