We nowcast world trade using machine learning, distinguishing between tree-based methods (random forest, gradient boosting) and their regression-based counterparts (macroeconomic random forest, linear gradient boosting). While much less used in the literature, the latter are found to outperform...

This paper builds on the recent arguments put forward by Richard Baldwin and others debunking the myth that we enter a period of de-globalisation. The paper argues that globalisation is a complex phenomenon that requires detailed, firm-level indicators going beyond simple aggregate metrics. When...

This paper empirically examines the effects of financial crises on the organization of production of multinational enterprises. We construct a panel of European multinational networks from 2003 through 2015. We use as a financial shock the increase in risk premia between August 2007 and July...

One major shortcoming in Euroland's National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) consists in the missing distinction between exports (imports) on the one hand and dispatches (arrivals) between the member states on the other hand. In this paper "true" NIPA trade is derived from official figures....

In dieser Untersuchung werden Indikatoren wie Offenheit, die Intensität des Intra-industriellen Handels, Feldstein-Horioka-Koeffizienten, grenzüberschreitende Flüsse von Lizenzzahlungen und Anteile der Produktion der Unternehmen eines Landes im Ausland herangezogen, um die Integration Japans...

In diesem kurzen Aufsatz werden die Kosten des Terrors für den internationalen Handel diskutiert. Unstrittig ist, dass Unsicherheit und Gewalt die wirtschaftliche Aktivität lähmen können. Ob auch terroristische Aktionen, die häufig isolierte Ereignisse darstellen, selten auf direkte...

Financial stability is an important policy objective since crises are associated with big economic, social, and political costs. Promoting stability requires preventing 'sudden stops' in capital flows, which are events in which foreign financing abruptly disappears. This paper contributes to the...

Was die Weltwirtschaft angeht, - bemerkt Tucholsky bissig in seinem Essay "Kurzer Abriß der Nationalökonomie" in den zwanziger Jahren - "so ist sie verflochten". Und er fährt fort: "Eine wichtige Rolle im Handel spielt der Export. Export ist, wenn die anderen kaufen sollen, was wir nicht...

We offer a new explanation as to why international trade is so volatile in response to economic shocks. Our approach combines the uncertainty shock idea of Bloom (2009) with a model of international trade, extending the idea to the open economy. Firms import intermediate inputs from home or...