The paper uses local linear regression to estimate the ``direct'' Average Derivative \delta = E(D[m(x)]), where m(x) is the regression function. The estimate of \delta is the weighted average of local slope estimates. We prove the asymptotic normality of the estimate under conditions which are...

When monetary policy announcements are expected to occur at scheduled dates, the event of an unscheduled announcement often "surprises" financial markets. However, if the information provider knows the future policy beforehand, he might be induced to anticipate the release of information without...