Using theoretical foundations, VAR restrictions are imposed allowing demand and supply sources of output movement to be distinguished and the effects of their shocks on stock prices to be analysed. Stock prices are sensitive to all shocks although the influence from the real economy to the stock...

Using 20 years of Australian quarterly data, this paper decomposes Australian share prices into their fundamental and speculative components. To do this we derive the fundamental share-price-output ratio and, hence, the fundamental share price from a resticted vector-autoregressive model...

This paper is concerned primarily with the economic and welfare consequences of federal redistributive grants. We use a model which has two regions, each with households, firms and regional governments as well as a federal government. The households, firms and regional governments are all...

In China inter-regional per capita output disparities are large and persistent and increasingly a matter for policy concern at the highest levels of government. Interregional spillovers are an important ingredient in the design of regional development policy. Yet little is known about the...

This paper evaluates the role of technical change as a mediating channel through which the effects of institutions trickle down to affect macroeconomic volatility, crises and growth. Using different samples, estimation procedures and indicators of institutions and technical change, we find a...

Using 54 yeras of US quarterly data and a VAR model underpinned by a theory of the relationship between stock prices and output, this paper considers the deviations of US stock prices from their fundamental value. To do this we derive the fundamental price-output ratio and the fundamental stock...

This paper explores weak and semi-stong efficiency for both A and B shares traded on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges using daily data for seven indexes for the period 1992-2001. We find evidence of departures from weak efficiency in the form of predictability or returns on the basis of...

Interregional spillover effects are central to China’s growth policy; yet relatively little is known about the strength and duration of these spillovers and whether their characteristics have changed over time. This paper examines the spillover of output between the three commonly-used regions...

This paper examines the question of inter-regional spillovers in China. We argue that this is a central question in Chinese economic policy, given the marked regional disparities that exist and the concern of policy-makers to ameliorate them. We analyse this question within the framework of a...