Analysts seeking evidence of rising inflation often focus on the movements of a single indicator_an increase in the price of gold, for example, or a decline in the unemployment rate. But simple statistical tests reveal that such indicators, used in isolation, have very limited predictive power.

Despite posting their strongest sustained performance in many years, recent measures of output and productivity growth have still fallen short of their 1960-73 averages. Could data-measurement problems affecting the pricing of some services account for the inability of these widely tracked U.S....

Many supporters of the tax cut enacted this summer viewed it as an important stimulus to consumer spending. But an analysis of the effects of earlier income tax cuts suggests that the consumer response to such initiatives is, in fact, quite variable. Two conclusions stand out: First, consumers...

This paper explores the connections between broad indicators of economic conditions in the New York Metropolitan area and their national counterparts. Our examination provides two different views of the metropolitan economy. First, as is well known, employment growth in the region over the last...

Recent dramatic changes in the U.S. economy's structure have compelled BEA to revise the way in which it measures real GDP levels and growth. By switching to a chain-weighted method of computing aggregate growth--which relies heavily on current price information--BEA will be able to measure GDP...

The 1990s have seen astonishing growth in the stock market portfolios of Americans, which many have argued has been a major force behind the growth of consumer spending. This paper reviews the relationship between the stock market and the consumer. Using a variety of econometric techniques and...