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We examine rationality, forecasting accuracy, and economic value of the survey-based exchange rate forecasts for 10 developed and 23 developing countries at the 3-, 12-, and 24-month horizons. Using the data from two surveys for the period from 2004 to 2012, we find strong evidence that the...
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expectations regarding GDP growth, inflation, interest rates, and current accounts. Our empirical findings show that fundamentals … relative to the US leads to an expected appreciation of the domestic currency while higher relative inflation expectations lead …
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