Over the past forty years, U.S. inflation has exhibited highly persistent movements. Moreover, these shifts in inflation have typically had real consequences, implying a "sacrifice ratio," whereby disinflations are typically associated with recessions and persistent increases in inflation often...

This note develops an econometric model of inflation dynamics to assess recent developments. We find that most of the rapid decline in price pressures achieved in 2023 owes to the normalization of supply chains. With supply-chain disruptions now largely resolved, future progress toward...