This paper compares three models, namely Markov-Switching Model (MS), Self-Exciting-Threshold-Autoregressive Model (SETAR) and Hidden Markov Model (HMM), for detecting turning points of business cycles. The aim is to find out which of the three models produces the most reliable signals of...

This paper studies a scenario - one of the six problems with Austrian Business Cycle theory raised by Hummel (1979) - that the ABCT literature has paid little attention. Will a constant rate of credit expansion necessarily lead to a boom-bust cycle? We conclude that this scenario has two...