We construct factors from a cross section of exchange rates and use the idiosyncratic deviations from the factors to forecast. In a stylized data generating process, we show that such forecasts can be effective even if there is essentially no serial correlation in the univariate exchange rate...

This paper assesses the performance of a number of long-term interest rate forecast approaches, namely time series models, structural economic models, expert forecasts and combinations thereof. The predictive performance of these approaches is compared using out of sample forecast errors, where...

We propose two types of equal predictive ability (EPA) tests with panels to compare the predictions made by two forecasters. The first type, namely S-statistics, focuses on the overall EPA hypothesis which states that the EPA holds on average over all panel units and over time. The second,...