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how a simple equal-weighted combination of the constrained forecasts leads to further improvements in forecast accuracy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012900845
We forecast quarterly US stock returns using eighteen predictor variables both individually and in multivariate … regressions, with the former also used in forecast combinations. Using rolling and recursive approaches, we consider a range of … statistical and economic evaluation measures. We consider linear and non-linear regressions as well as forecast evaluations over …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012909692
In this paper we seek to demonstrate the predictability of stock market returns and explain the nature of this return predictability. To this end, we introduce investors with different investment horizons into the news-driven, analytic, agent-based market model developed in Gusev et al. (2015)....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013003954
We show that understanding the role of analysts' forecast bias is central to discovering the behavior that causes some … stocks to have high analyst forecast dispersion. This finding is important because stocks with high analyst forecast … dispersion contribute significantly to many important anomalies. We first explain how forecast bias produces significant negative …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012853676
range of forecast performance measures and consider single model and combined forecasts. The results show that, with one …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012987935
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construct a proxy of the adjustment factor using the sequence of dispersion of analysts earnings forecast. We provide empirical …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012487731
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