Purpose – This study aims to use gray models to predict abnormal stock returns.Design/methodology/approach – Data are collected from listed companies in the Tehran Stock Exchange during 2005-2015. The analyses portray three models, namely, the gray model, the nonlinear gray Bernoulli model...

This paper investigates the predictability of stock market returns conditional on herd behaviour states (intense/adverse) using a fixed effects model to capture cross-sectional and time variability covering the European region. We show that herd behaviour negatively forecasts stock returns on...

Using a novel equity lending dataset, this paper is the first to show that expected returns strongly and negatively predict future equity lending fees. In comparing two expected return measures, I find that a rational expected return has stronger predictive power of future short selling activity...