The relationship between inventory investment and the real interest rate has been difficult to assess empirically. Recent work has proposed a linear-quadratic inventory model with time-varying discount factor to identify the effects of real interest rate on inventory investment. The authors show...

Following a contractionary monetary policy shock, the aggregate output decreases over time for six to eight quarters, while the real interest rate increases immediately and remains high for three quarters. Full participation models can hardly replicate the joint response of the aggregate output...

In this paper, we discuss the consequences of taking into account the variations of the natural real interest rate (r t *) in simple monetary policy rules. We also provide one possible model-based analysis of the level of r t * that has prevailed in the euro area since the early 1970s, and...

The detection of structural change and determination of lag lengths are long-standing issues in time series analysis. This paper demonstrates how these can be successfully married in a Bayesian analysis. By taking account of the inherent uncertainty about the lag length when deciding on the...