In this article we use the theory of conditional forecasts to develop a new Monetary Conditions Index (MCI) for Brazil and compare it to the ones constructed using the methodologies suggested by Bernanke and Mihov (1998) and Batini and Turnbull (2002). We use Sims and Zha (1999) and Waggoner and...

This article investigates the stochastic and dynamic relationship of a group of Brazilian macroeconomic variables (price and industrial production indexes, nominal exchange rate, short and medium-run nominal interest rates) for the period after the Real Plan (1996-2004). We adopt, as has become...

In this article we use the theory of conditional forecasts to develop a new MonetaryConditions Index (MCI) for Brazil and compare it to the ones constructed using themethodologies suggested by Bernanke and Mihov (1998) and Batini and Turnbull(2002). We use Sims and Zha (1999) and Waggoner and...

This article investigates the stochastic and dynamic relationship of a group ofBrazilian macroeconomic variables (price and industrial production indexes, nominalexchange rate, short and medium-run nominal interest rates) for the period after theReal Plan (1996-2004). We adopt, as has become...

This article estimates the monetary policy rule followed by the Brazilian Central Bank for setting its main policy instrument, the SELIC rate, for the period after the Real Plan. In order to overcome the uncertainty over the dates at which changes in parameters occurred, this paper uses...

O presente artigo estima o nível do produto, em cada período de tempo, que manteria a inflação estável no Brasil – Nonaccelerating Inflation Level of Output (NAILO). Obtém ainda bandas de probabilidade (bayesianas) para o NAILO e para a sua taxa de crescimento, e investiga a relação...