This paper investigates how best to forecast optimal portfolio weights in the context of a volatility timing strategy. It measures the economic value of a number of methods for forming optimal portfolios on the basis of realized volatility. These include the traditional econometric approach of...

A possibility of the existence of a discontinuity of Prelec’s (probability weighting) function W(p) at the probability p = 1 is discussed. This possibility is supported by the Aczél–Luce question whether Prelec’s weighting function W(p) is equal to 1 at p = 1, by the purely mathematical...

A need for experiments on the certainty effect near the certainty (near the probability p = 1) is stated in this paper. The need supported by the Aczél–Luce question whether Prelec’s weighting function W(p) is equal to 1 at p = 1, by the purely mathematical restrictions and the...

This is a very draft version of the report "The random-lottery incentive system. Can p~1 experiments deductions be correct?". It is published to extend the abstract of the report. Aczél and Luce emphasized a fundamental question: whether W(1)=1 (whether the Prelec weighting function equals 1 at...