It is widely understood that the real price of globally traded commodities is determined by the forces of demand and supply. One of the main determinants of the real price of commodities is shifts in the demand for commodities associated with unexpected fluctuations in global real economic...

Hamilton (2018) suggests that the Kilian (2009) index of global real economic activity is misleading and calls for alternative measures. The problem documented by Hamilton is a consequence of a coding mistake. Specifically, the index of nominal freight rates underlying the Kilian index was...

The paper seeks to answer the question of how price forecasting can contribute to which techniques gives the most accurate results in the futures commodity market. A total of two families of models (decision trees, artificial intelligence) were used to produce estimates for 2018 and 2022 for 21-...