A simulation model that estimates individual health care spending as a function of the structure of indemnity-type insurance plans is presented. The behavioral models that form the basis for this work were developed as part of RAND's Health Insurance Experiment, (HIE), a randomized clinical...

We analyze the claims database of a large malpractice insurer covering more than 8,000 physicians and 9,300 claims. Applying empirical Bayes methods in a regression setting, we construct a predictor of each physician's underlying propensity to incur malpractice claims. Our explanatory factors...