Many standard structural models in economics have the property that they induce persistent, partially predictable heteroskedasticity ("volatility clustering") in their key dependent variables, even when their underlying stochastic shock variables are all serially independent and homoskedastic,...

This paper identifies two distinct types of payoff kinks that can be exhibited by preference functions over monetary lotteries - "locally separable" vs. "locally nonseparable" - and illustrates their relationship to the payoff and probability derivatives of such functions. Expected utility and...

Robustify - To identify the analytical aspects of a model that continue to hold under more general conditions. This usually requires expressing the model and its results in a particular manner, as statements that may be logically equivalent under the assumptions of a given model can differ...

When forecasts of the future value of some variable, or the probability of some event, are used for purposes of ex ante planning or decision making, then the preferences, opportunities and constraints of the decision maker will all enter into the ex post evaluation of a forecast, and the ex post...

The phenomena of ambiguity and ambiguity aversion , introduced in Daniel Ellsberg’s seminal 1961 article, are ubiquitous in the real world and violate both the key rationality axioms and classic models of choice under uncertainty. In particular, they violate the hypothesis that individuals’...

Beliefs, Interactions and Preferences in Decision Making mixes a selection of papers, presented at the Eighth Foundations and Applications of Utility and Risk Theory (`FUR VIII') conference in Mons, Belgium, together with a few solicited papers from well-known authors in the field. This book...

Models and Experiments in Risk and Rationality presents original contributions to the areas of individual choice, experimental economics, operations and analysis, multiple criteria decision making, market uncertainty, game theory and social choice. The papers, which were presented at the FUR VI...