We use the unobserved components model of Harvey (1989 and 2011) to estimate the Phillips curve (PC) for the USA and Australia, by augmenting it with oil prices. We found that the level coefficient of inflation and the coefficient of demand pressure have declined and contributed to the...

This paper analyses possible targets for the Italian debt-to-GDP ratio with a small macroeconomic model. The role of international macroeconomic variables such as the US GDP growth, prices of raw materials, EUR/USD exchange rate, and ECB monetary policy stance and domestic policy instruments is...

This paper estimates the steady state growth rate for Ireland with an extended version of the Solow (1956) growth model. We show that the education and trade openness have played an important role to improve the long-run growth rate. Policies to further improve the long-run growth rate are...

We investigate whether the mortgage equity withdrawal (MEW) mechanism is useful for explaining the large declines in the US personal saving ratio in the last two decades. MEW depends on house price inflation and mortgage rates. In addition stock prices may affect saving ratio. Therefore, we...

This paper uses recent US data to estimate the new Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) with three modifications. Firstly, the variables in the NKPC are found to be nonstationary. Therefore, it is estimated with the time series methods and the cointegrating equations are tested for structural breaks....

This paper distinguishes between the long run and short run Phillips curve (PC) and uses the micro theory based specification, with forward looking expectations, for the long run PC. The long run and the implied short run dynamic equations are estimated in one step with the general to specific...

This work shows that Italian consumer confidence indicator (CCI) is non-stationary and, therefore, can be estimated with the time series methods. It is found that a long-run relationship exists between CCI, short-term interest rate, industrial production index and the difference between...

This paper uses the methodology of Pearce (1979) and Bhagestani and Noori (2008) to show that the expected rate of inflation by the market participants in Australia is more rational than the household survey forecasts by the Melbourne Institute.

This paper tests for the time series properties of the variables in the sticky information Phillips curve and estimates it for the US with the general to specific method (GETS). Our results show that the estimates of the stickiness parameter range from 0.25 to 0.42.