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-based indicators are highly correlated with official inflation data and estimates of the output gap and improve the accuracy of … inflation forecasts. This suggests that these indicators could help central banks foresee inflationary pressures in the economy …
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We develop a novel method for the identification of monetary policy shocks. By applying natural language processing techniques to documents that Federal Reserve staff prepare in advance of policy decisions, we capture the Fed's information set. Using machine learning techniques, we then predict...
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devaluations within the context of a surge in inflation and a fall and subsequent recovery of real labor income. To better …
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