This paper estimates the scarring effect of recessions on corporates’ investment and how it is amplified by the level of corporate debt. Our results suggest that the effect of firms’ debt in shaping the response of investment to recessions is statistically significant and economically...

The stringency of bank liquidity and capital requirements should depend on their social costs and benefits. This paper investigates their welfare effects and quantifies their welfare costs using sufficient statistics. The special role of banks as liquidity providers is embedded in an otherwise...

This study tested the unbiased pricing hypothesis in the copper, aluminum, nickel, and lead markets for the period October 2011 to May 2021. Wavelets and a time-varying parameter model with Bayesian priors were the primary tools. Each metal market was found to be weak market efficient, the...

We propose an aggregate technical trading index by extracting the most relevant forecasting information contained in 7,846 technical trading rules to predict equity risk premium in the U.S. The proposed method is based on the false discovery rate and partial least squares approaches that...

We use the Indian stock options market to study the evolution of uncertainty and asymmetric uncertainty around earnings announcements (EAs). We find that uncertainty (implied volatility) and asymmetric uncertainty (options skew) increase monotonically before the EA day and decrease after EA....

Systematic risk factors can be used to create portfolios free of idiosyncratic risks but are not usually orthogonal to each other. Are correlations between pairs of factors predictable? Does accounting for the dependence structure among systematic factors improve traditional portfolio...

This paper investigates the US housing market from just before the Great Recession onward (2006–19) and assesses the viability of stock-flow matching in generating the observed outcomes. The paper documents that the probability that a house sells declines sharply after listing for two weeks....

Firm-level productivity differences are big and largely ascribed to ex-ante heterogeneity in the entrepreneurs’ growth potential at birth. Where do these ex-ante differences come from, and what can the policy do to encourage the entry of high-growth entrepreneurs? I study empirically and by...

This paper investigates the predictability of stock market returns conditional on herd behaviour states (intense/adverse) using a fixed effects model to capture cross-sectional and time variability covering the European region. We show that herd behaviour negatively forecasts stock returns on...