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A functional ARMA-GARCH model for predicting the value-at-risk of the EURUSD exchange rate is introduced. The model implements the yield curve differentials between EUR and the US as exogenous factors. Functional principal component analysis allows us to use the information of basically the...
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, credit risk, and flight to quality drive both spreads and CDSs of five years' maturity over swaps for Greece and Ireland in … Debt Crisis ; Spreads ; CDS ; FAVAR Model ; Greece and Ireland …
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these countries, up to 0.8 percentage points (PP) Portugal and Ireland, 0.3 PP in Italy and 0.2 PP in Spain. …
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