basis of available information at the time the budget is prepared; we find that the forecast error based is six times … greater than the error based on ex-post projection. These results imply that the forecast error predominantly reflects … are even more limited — based only on lagged tax revenues and a GDP growth forecast — provide less-accurate projections …

Risk forecasting is crucial for informed investment decision-making. Moreover, the salience of investment risk … increases during economically uncertain times. In this paper, we study how sell-side analysts form expectations of firm risk … use of quantitative/qualitative information improves their forecasts as predictors of firm risk. Together, our results …

-varying forecast uncertainty and risk for the real price of oil over the period 1974-2018. We show that the combination approach …We propose a novel and numerically efficient quantification approach to forecast uncertainty of the real price of oil …, estimation of time-varying forecast biases and facets of miscalibration of individual forecast densities and time-varying inter …

uncertainty of a combined forecast should be interpreted as that of a typical forecaster randomly drawn from the pool. With a … some previously used measures significantly underestimate the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty. …