The Calvo contract Phillips Curve is widely indexed for general inflation, using either core inflation or other backward-looking formulae. Such a Phillips Curve implies a high and persistent degree of nominal rigidity. It is argued here that optimal indexation would by contrast use the rational...

This note presents a simple generalization of the adaptive expectations mechanism in which the learning parameter is time variant. It is shown that expectations generated in this way are rational in the sense of producing minimum mean squared forecast errors for a broad class of time series...

This paper develops a panel unobserved components model of the monetary transmission mechanism in the world economy, disaggregated into twenty national economies along the lines of the Group of Twenty. This structural macroeconometric model features extensive linkages between the real and...

In a recent paper Ganguli/Yang (2009) demonstrate, that there can exist multiple equilibria in a financial market model a' la Grossman/Stiglitz (1980) if traders possess private information regarding the supply of the risky asset. The additional equilibria differ in some important respects from...

Learning process is a new approach of filling the gap between adaptive expectations and rational expectations. Private agents are learning new information and adjust their expectation about the inflation and output gap. Central bank transparency is one of the key factors of learning by private...

This note shows that there are close connections between the determinacy of a stationary state equilibrium and its stability under learning whenever agents try to estimate both the law of motion of the state variable and the stationary state value.

The purpose of this paper is to assess the relevance of rational expectations solutions to the class of linear univariate models where both the number of leads in expectations and the number of lags in predetermined variables are arbitrary. It recommends to rule out all the solutions that would...

This paper studies relationships between the local determinacy of a stationary equilibrium in the perfect foresight dynamics, and its local stability in dynamics arising from econometric learning procedures. Attention is focused on linear scalar economies where agents forecast only one period...

Empirical studies have shown that implied volatilities of long-term options react quite strongly to changes in implied volatilities of short-term options and do not display the rationally expected smoothing behavior. Given the observed strong mean-reversion in volatility, those findings have...

This paper introduces an equilibrium concept for boundedly rational agents who base their demand-supply decisions on incorrect price anticipations. Formally, we differentiate between equilibrium and out-of-equilibrium states. If the agents attach zero prior probability to all out-of-equilibrium...