We propose a simple modification of Hamilton’s (2018) time series filter that yields reliable and economically meaningful real-time output gap estimates. The original filter relies on 8 quarter ahead forecast errors of a simple autoregression of real GDP. While this approach yields a cyclical...

Introduction -- Acknowledgements -- China's growth potential to 2050 : a supply-side forecast based on cross-country productivity convergence and its featured labor force -- Is China's current slowdown a cyclical downturn or a long-run trend : a productivity-based analysis -- Policy implications...