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We inject aggregate uncertainty - risk and ambiguity - into an otherwise standard business cycle model and describe its …
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We develop a theory of endogenous uncertainty and business cycles in which short-lived shocks can generate long …
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variables. We model economics as ensemble of agents on economic space and agent's risk ratings play role of their coordinates …-like equations define fluctuations of aggregate variables. Repeated motion of agents from low risk to high risk area and back define … risk, mean square risk and higher statistical moments. Fluctuations of statistical moments describe phases of financial and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012948584
de Groot, Richter, and Throckmorton (2018) argue that the model in Basu and Bundick (2017) can match the empirical evidence only because the model assumes an asymptote in the economy's response to an uncertainty shock. In this Reply, we provide new results showing that our model's ability to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012914416
Can increased uncertainty about the future cause a contraction in output and its components? An identified uncertainty shock in the data causes significant declines in output, consumption, investment, and hours worked. Standard general-equilibrium models with flexible prices cannot reproduce...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012460240
Emerging markets business cycle models treat default risk as part of an exogenous interest rate on working capital …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012461507
three changes to the model—recalibration, a risk-premium shock, and a disaster risk-type shock—to try and restore their …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014121010