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Can increased uncertainty about the future cause a contraction in output and its components? An identified uncertainty shock in the data causes significant declines in output, consumption, investment, and hours worked. Standard general-equilibrium models with flexible prices cannot reproduce...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012972440
Nominal shocks have long lasting effects on real economic activity, beyond those implied by the average frequency of price adjustment in micro data. This paper develops a price-setting model that explains this gap through the interplay of menu costs and uncertainty about productivity....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012857180
We inject aggregate uncertainty - risk and ambiguity - into an otherwise standard business cycle model and describe its …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013050286
We develop a theory of endogenous uncertainty and business cycles in which short-lived shocks can generate long …
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We identify a shock that explains the bulk of fluctuations in equity risk premia, and show that the shock also explains … contract workers. A real model with labor market frictions and fluctuations in risk appetite can explain all of these facts …, both qualitatively and quantitatively. The size of risk-driven fluctuations depends on the relationship between the …
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frictions render labor-market risk countercyclical and endogenous to monetary policy. Our main result is that a majority of …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013210409