This paper compares the most significant expectational stability criteria that have been used to assess the plausibility of perfect foresight trajectories in forward-looking dynamical systems: determinacy of trajectories, absence of neighbour sunspot trajectories, and convergence of " evolutive...

[eng] This text is a slightly revised version of the opening lecture to the “ Journées de l’Association Française de Science Économique ” (Rennes , 2004). In keeping with the rules of the exercise, the article provides a broad assessment of the difficulties and usefulness of...

Debates over post-Kyoto Protocol climate change policy often take note of two issues: the feasibility and desirability of international cooperation on climate change policies, given the failure of the United States to ratify Kyoto, and the very limited involvement of developing countries; and...

The rational expectations hypothesis (REH) dominates economic modeling in areas ranging from monetary theory, macroeconomics, and general equilibrium to finance. In this book, Roger Guesnerie continues the critical analysis of the REH begun in his Assessing Rational Expectations: Sunspot...

In this book Roger Guesnerie contributes to the critical assessment of the Rational Expectations hypothesis (REH). He focuses on the multiplicity question that arises in (infinite horizon) Rational Expectation models and considers the implications for a theory of endogenous fluctuations. The...

Este artigo apresenta uma reflexão sobre a ciência econômica. Através da história da disciplina, desde Ricardo ao manifesto da Sociedade de Econometria, serão discutidas as categorias 'análise' e 'teoria' e sublinhados os méritos e os perigos do trabalho 'teórico-quantitativo' e...

This paper examines justifications of the rational-expectations hypothesis that rely on the analysis of the agents' mental forecasting ("educing") activity (which involves "forecasting the forecasts" of others, etc.). The corresponding concept of eductive learning stability, based on the...