The competition for carbon capture, storage, and utilisation is intensifying. Historically dominated by North America, the lead in this technology is now being seized by key players across Asia - reaching from Saudi Arabia to Japan. Unlike traditional energy (transition) geopolitics, this new...

We specify an empirical model of US inflation which has the dynamics of wage and price setting at its core. In the dynamic wage equation an equilibrium-correction term connects the wage level to industrial prosperity indicators. In that way, the role of wage setting in the dynamics of the...

Despite changing attitudes around disability over time, people with disabilities still face large barriers to labour market participation. We apply a sociological framework that considers both supply- and demand-side explanations for labour market inequality to help understand the continuing...

This paper describes a weekly economic index (WEI) developed to track the rapid economic developments associated with the onset of and policy response to the novel coronavirus in the United States. The WEI is a weekly composite index of real economic activity, with eight of ten series available...

Business cycles are costlier and stabilization policies more beneficial than widely thought. This paper shows that all business cycles are asymmetric and resemble mini "disasters." By this we mean that growth is pervasively fat-tailed and non-Gaussian. Using long-run historical data, we show...

Foreign investors' changing appetite for risk-taking has been shown to be a key determinant of the global financial cycle. Such fluctuations in risk sentiment also correlate with the dynamics of uncovered interest parity (UIP) premia, capital flows, and exchange rates. To understand how these...

We have documented a regime change in the U.S. Treasury market post-Global Financial Crisis (GFC). We first derived bounds on Treasury yields that account for dealer balance sheet costs, which we call the net short and net long curves. We show that actual Treasury yields moved from the net short...

This paper builds on Baqaee and Farhi (2022) and di Giovanni et al. (2022) to quantify the contribution of fiscal policy to U.S. inflation over the December 2019-June 2022 period. Model calibrations show that aggregate demand shocks explain roughly two-thirds of total model-based inflation, and...

We use the 2020 Small Business Credit Survey to study the sources of racial disparities in use of the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP). Black-owned firms are 8.9 percentage points less likely than observably similar white-owned firms to receive PPP loans. About 55 percent of this take-up...