Among analysts, technical trading rules are widely used for forecasting security returns. Recent literature provides edivende that these rules may provide positive profits after accounting for transaction costs. This would be contrary to the theory of the efficient market hypothesis which states...

We instillate rational cognition and learning in "seemingly riskless" choices and judgments. Preferences and possibilities are given in a stochastic sense and based on revisable expectations. The theory predicts experimental preference reversals and passes a sharp econometric test of the status...