The combination of substantial terms of trade variability and unstable correlation patterns of trade prices with output and trade volumes has led some to suggest a break in the link between trade volumes and prices. We find that oil accounts for much of the variation in the terms of trade over...

The combination of substantial terms of trade variability and unstable correlation patterns of trade prices with output and trade volumes has led some to suggest a break in the link between trade volumes and prices. We find that oil accounts for much of the variation in the terms of trade over...

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic adjustment in commodity-exporting countries to commodity price shocks. First, I estimate a heterogenous panel SVAR using data from 22 commodity-exporting economies spanning the period 1980-2017. I find that commodity terms of trade shocks are an important...