An explanation of the observed relationships between voluntary job turnover and wages over a worker's lifetime, using a model featuring adverse selection.

We document increased central bank independence within the set of industrialized nations. This increased independence can account for nearly two thirds of the improved inflation performance of these nations over the last two decades.

The authors show that in a plausibly calibrated monetary model with explicit production, exogenous money growth rules ensure real determinacy and thus avoid sunspot fluctuations. Although it is theoretically possible to construct examples in which real indeterminacy does arise, these examples...

A reexamination of the potential costs of anticipated inflation in view of the inflation indexing system established during the 1980s.

This paper uses a model of a small, open economy to address two monetary policy issues: 1) What restrictions on the policy rule ensure that the central bank does not introduce real indeterminacy into the economy? and 2) What is the optimal long-run rate of inflation? The model's simplicity makes...

Every U.S. recession since 1971 has been preceded by two things: an oil price shock and an increase in the federal funds rate. Bernanke, Gertler, and Watson (1997,2004) investigated how much oil price shocks have contributed to output growth by asking the following counterfactual question:...

We trace the consequences of an energy shock on the economy under two different monetary policy rules: a standard Taylor rule where the Fed responds to inflation and the output gap; and a Taylor rule with inertia where the Fed moves slowly to the rate predicted by the standard rule. We show that...

An examination of contagious bank runs and a discussion of how private clearinghouses have protected against widespread bank failures, with the determination that federal deposit insurance may not be necessary to protect against runs; conclusion of February 1 issue.

The Taylor rule, which once was mentioned only in scholarly economics journals, now is popping up regularly in newsmagazines, finance journals, and central bankers' speeches. Does the Fed follow the rule? Should it? This Commentary explains what the Taylor rule is, discusses why it seems to...

A look at how the cost and quality of medical services in the United States would be affected by enterprise liability, a malpractice reform proposal that would 1) transfer liability in malpractice cases from the doctor to the patient's health care plan and 2) institute no-fault malpractice...