The standard model of inter-temporal optimization is based upon certainty equivalence and ignores risk and uncertainty. We solve a modification of the standard model of inter-temporal optimization in an environment where the return to capital is stochastic, and we impose the constraint that...

Alan Greenspan's paper (March 2010) presents his retrospective view of the crisis. His theme has several parts. First, the housing price bubble, its subsequent collapse and the financial crisis were not predicted either by the market, the FED, the IMF or the regulators in the years leading to...

A healthy financial system encourages the efficient allocation of capital and risk. The collapse of the house price bubble led to the financial crisis that started in 2007. There is a large empirical literature concerning the relation between asset price bubbles and financial crises. I evaluate...

This article seeks to explain intercountry differences in the debt crises in Europe. Is there a single explanation, cause? Specifically, were the crises due to government budget deficits or to the private sector? The answer will determine the appropriate policies to prevent a recurrence. The...

We provide benchmarks to evaluate what is an optimal foreign debt and a maximal foreign debt (debt-max), when risk is explicitly considered. When the actual debt exceeds debt-max, then the economy will default when a bad shock occurs. This paper is an application of the stochastic optimal...