This note introduces a shadow rate term structure model based on OIS rates and surveys to quantify federal funds rate expectations and term premiums over horizons ranging from one month to five years. The model implies that term premiums vary over time and can be substantial in magnitude, even...

The equity risk premium is generally considered to be a reward that investors earn on top of the prevailing risk-free return, implying that, all else equal, total expected stock returns should increase with the level of the risk-free return. We examine whether this notion is true using long-term...

We develop a general equilibrium model of interest rates based on a continuous-time production economy populated by heterogeneous shareholders with logarithmic preferences. It allows us to study the impact of belief heterogeneity on bonds, the risk-free rate, and the yield curve. In particular,...

The conditional skewness of Treasury yields is an important indicator of the risks to the macroeconomic outlook. Positive skewness signals upside risk to interest rates during periods of accommodative monetary policy and an upward-sloping yield curve, and vice versa. Skewness has substantial...

Using a new survey data set of matched exchange rate and interest rate expectations for eight currencies relative to the German mark, we examine empirically the relationship between exchange rate returns, "news" and risk premia. "News" on interest differentials enters significantly in equations...

This paper investigates international co-movement in bond yields by testing for uncovered interest parity (UIP). Existing work is supplemented by focusing on long instead of short-term interest rates and by employing exchange rate expectations derived from purchasing power parity (PPP) instead...